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Probability Puzzle



Puzzle: If the probability of observing a car in 20 minutes on a highway is 609/625, what is the probability of observing a car in 5 minutes (assuming constant default probability)?


Solution: Probability of not seeing the car in 20 minutes = (1 - 609/625) = 16/625
If P be the probability of not seeing the car in 5 minutes, then PxPxPxP = 16/625
=> P = 2/5
=> Probability of seeing the car in 5 minutes = (1 - 2/5) = 3/5






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